Michigan's Young Adult Population: A Tale of Growth and Decline
Michigan's young adult population has seen significant fluctuations over the past two decades, with some counties experiencing remarkable growth while others have faced substantial losses. From 2000 to 2020, Michigan lost nearly 4% of its young adults aged 25 to 34, but the story varies across the state's counties.
The 2000 Census revealed 1.36 million residents in this age group, which then decreased to 1.16 million in the 2010 Census before bouncing back to 1.31 million in the 2020 Census. This fluctuation can be attributed to a smaller generation being captured in the 2010 snapshot, according to experts.
The data highlights a stark contrast in performance among counties. While some counties witnessed population growth of 25- to 34-year-olds exceeding 18%, one county experienced a staggering loss of over half its young adult population. This disparity underscores the varying success in retaining, growing, and attracting residents in this demographic.
The areas with the most significant growth in the 25-34 age group between 2000 and 2020 are predominantly located along U.S. 131, I-96, and the western side of the state. Counties with universities also contributed to this growth trend. These findings are not surprising to Paul Isely, associate dean and professor of economics at Grand Valley State University's Seidman College of Business.
Isely observes that the map clearly indicates a correlation between job opportunities and population growth. The regions with job strength in Michigan, such as the 96 and 131 corridors, have also experienced population growth. The western side of the state has outperformed the eastern side in attracting, retaining, and growing the 25-34 population, as well as all demographics.
Isely attributes this success to a combination of factors, including more job diversity and economic resilience on the western side, which was less affected by the auto crisis. The western side also offers a blend of urban and natural amenities, which are highly attractive to young adults and families.
Kent County, home to Grand Rapids, Michigan's second-largest city, is the largest county on the west side and the fourth largest in the state. The county experienced a decline in its young adult population from 2000 to 2010, but it rebounded significantly to 101,273 in the 2020 count. While Marquette County narrowly outpaced Kent County in terms of percentage of young adults gained, Kent County still gained the most young adults overall.
The county that suffered the most significant loss of young adults over the two decades was Luce County in the Upper Peninsula, which lost 52.5% of its young adult population. The counties with the highest percentage of young adult loss were either largely rural or heavily impacted by auto job cuts in the late 2000s and early 2010s, such as Wayne and Genesee counties.
The trend of young people leaving rural areas is not new, according to Isely, as jobs are becoming more centralized in cities. However, the impact of telecommuting on this trend remains uncertain. Counties with universities have also seen substantial increases in young adults over the past two decades and make up a majority of the top 10 fastest-growing counties for this demographic.
University enrollment surged in the 2000s, peaking around 2010, before declining for most universities in the following decade. Michigan's overall population increased by approximately 1.39% between 2000 and 2020, but the state's population is expected to experience slow growth and then decline to about 9,906,000 people by 2050, according to the state of Michigan.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer has taken steps to address the 'brain drain' in Michigan, aiming to attract residents, young and old, to the state. In 2023, she established the Growing Michigan Together Council to advise her on population growth strategies. The council's final report, released later that year, offers valuable insights into the state's efforts to combat population decline.
